ChannelLife NZ - 2010 calling

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2010 calling

2009 has been a pretty rough year for many, although not as rough in the IT sector as most others. But what will 2010 bring? It’s a year of hope and a year of promise, but will it deliver or be more of the same?
Here’s what I think. Before I begin, however, those of you sharpening your pencils to fling the diatribe should  note that these predictions are what I think will happen in 2010, not what I think should happen or what I’d  love to see happen...
On the recession and IT Jobs
The recession is so 2009. People are sick of not spending and, whilst there will still be some lingering effects,  things will slowly and quietly get back to normal in the new year as people continue to open their wallets and  the economy continues to recover. This will inevitably bring what I call the ‘sunny-day dance’. Everyone’s  been hunkered down and weathering the storm over the last year or so, and at the first sign of a sunny day  there’ll be a big reshuffle, with people moving companies and positions en masse: a good time to be a  recruiter.
On Windows 7
Not really much to say here. Vista had some big problems, some real and some  perceived. Windows 7, on the other hand, is a big leap forward and a solid operating system which will  continue to hold the market for Microsoft. Some will still oppose it on ideological grounds, of course, however  the bulk of people will stick with it.
On mobile computing
Google’s Android 2.0 operating system launched amid much fanfare from the open source world recently. However when all is said and done, it won’t dent the iPhone’s huge and growing market share significantly.
Let’s face it, the majority of iPhone buyers bought the iPhone despite its locked down applications  framework, non-user-replaceable battery and other shortfalls. They bought it because it works, works well, and has an interface that my two-year-old daughter can happily run. And the app store, of course.
However it’ll be a different story for Symbian, which will likely continue to experience a drop in market share  as Android takes hold. And Windows Mobile... unfortunately it’ll be some time before it’s a serious contender  again.
On cloud computing
Cloud computing has been the poster child for 2009, yet surprisingly, there’s still much confusion and misunderstanding about what it actually is.
When the dust settles, people will realise that the cloud is not so much an über new technology as a  combination of existing technologies – Software-asa- Service and a distributed infrastructure to support it. The term ‘cloud computing’ will slowly be dropped and more software will become available in the cloud, but it’ll  take a lot longer than 2010 for the full paradigm to shift, if it ever does.
On the ‘new web’ (aka social media)
Speaking of horrible terms being dropped, ‘social media’ will be shown the door in 2010. Just the term, that is,  not the actual ideology or technologies!
Just like static websites a few short years ago, more businesses will realise that having a presence on Twitter  and Facebook as part of their core communicationsisn’t optional.
On Bing vs Google
With Bing, Microsoft has a very serious contender to Google’s dominance in the search space, but will it be enough? In short, no. Google will remain dominant, purely because there’s no reason to shift. However,  Bing’s introduction will bring about a new wave of innovation in the searchengine space.
On the IT profession
This one may appear a little selfserving, but the fact is there will be significant change within the IT profession  in 2010 as professional certification continues to take hold.
As with every profession, there are  those that don’t like standards and a culture of ethics and professionalism.  However, the high uptake of the ITCP Professional Certification program makes it clear  that it’s here and here to stay, and this will continue to take hold throughout 2010.
On copyright
2010 will be significant in terms of changes to copyright law. The proposed ACTA treaty will be revealed,  greeted by outrage throughout the world, and will be fi nally dropped after unprecedented pressure from many  quarters. We’ll end up with something in the middle and both sides will be unhappy – the pure  ideologists because their beef is with the concept of copyright just as much as the draconian measures the  media corporations are attempting to push through, and the corporates because they’ll still have to police their  own civil infringements.
In summary
2010 will be a year of consolidation and technical advancement; however, it’s doubtful we’ll see many truly  new innovations – just enhancements and improvements. ‘Green’ IT will be quietly forgotten and there’ll be a  continued focus on economic performance while organisations rebuild their reserves.
But overall, IT will continue to be a great field to be in, and will continue to grow as organisations look to also  make some of the investments they’ve been holding off over the last year or so, which spells great things  for the channel community.

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